fintech-algorithms
Using a coding agent? Give it the skill: npx skills add IslamBaraka90/Fintech-Algorithms-Library What it does →

ARCH

Install and import#

bash
npm install fintech-algorithms
ts
import { calculate } from "fintech-algorithms/volatility-and-covariance/conditional-volatility/arch";

Signature#

calculate(data)

Follow a squared shock through a finite coefficient queue. Supplied-parameter educational reference; no fitted performance claim.

Parameters#

NameTypeNotes
dataTopicInputSee data-contract/CONTRACT.md.

Returns#

TopicResult

Structured result with readiness, values, parameters, and diagnostics.

Warm-up#

The first depends on window or model order positions are null prefix until minimum history exists.

Errors#

  • When required data is missing, non-finite, malformed, or out of range — raises ContractError / Error

Complexity: time O(nq), space Full diagnostic trace retained for teaching; see implementation for observation/window/matrix dimensions.

Worked example#

executed Captured by running this function on the input its own test provides. Real output of real code — but not asserted against a published figure.

Input#

data
{
  "returns": [-0.02, 0.01, 0],
  "parameters": {
    "omega": 0.000002,
    "initial_variance": 0.0001,
    "alphas": [0.2, 0.1]
  }
}

Call#

calculate(data)

Returns#

object with 8 fields: topic_id, title, parameters, series, latest, ready, ready_at, diagnostics

{
  "topic_id": "D10-F03-A01",
  "title": "ARCH",
  "parameters": {
    "omega": 0.000002,
    "initial_variance": 0.0001,
    "alphas": [0.2, 0.1]
  },
  "series": [
    null,
    null,
    {
      "index": 2,
      "variance": 0.000062,
      "intercept": 0.000002,
      "lag_contributions": [0.00002, 0.00004]
    }
  ],
  "latest": {
    "index": 2,
    "variance": 0.000062,
    "intercept": 0.000002,
    "lag_contributions": [0.00002, 0.00004]
  },
  "ready": true,
  "ready_at": 2,
  "diagnostics": {
    "causal": true,
    "input_count": 3,
    "fitted_parameters": false,
    "model": "arch"
  }
}

Diagrams#

ARCH — article hero
ARCH — concept map
ARCH — decision comparison
ARCH — worked example

Calculation flow#

ARCH — calculation-flow
flowchart TD
    N0["Read only past residuals"]
    N1["Square each retained lag"]
    N2["Multiply by its own coefficient"]
    N3["Add intercept; current shock waits"]
    N0 --> N1 --> N2 --> N3
ARCH — decision-boundary
flowchart TD
    A["Supplied observations and parameters"] --> B{"Contract valid?"}
    B -->|No| E["Reject with explicit error"]
    B -->|Yes| C{"Required history available?"}
    C -->|No| W["Withhold; never insert zero"]
    C -->|Yes| D["ARCH calculation"]
    D --> F["Inspect diagnostics and stated limits"]

How it works#

This page states the contract — how to call it correctly. The article explains the concept: why it works, and where it breaks.

Read the article →

References#

  • Scope of evidence

The rest of the Conditional Volatility family#